Predicting the Oscars

The Academy Awards is almost upon us, so lets try and see if we can guess any of the winners of the major categories. I’ll tell what I hope that will win and what I think will win (as they often are not the same) and also include what the traders at the Hollywood Stock Exchange (HSX) are predicting, as they always seem to hit it spot on.

Best motion picture of the year

• “Atonement”
• “Juno”
• “Michael Clayton”
• “No Country for Old Men”
• “There Will Be Blood”

Here HSX is hands down going with No Country for Old Men, I also think that it’s going to win, but I really hope that There Will Be Blood will take the honor.

Achievement in directing

• “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly” – Julian Schnabel
• “Juno” – Jason Reitman
• “Michael Clayton” – Tony Gilroy
• “No Country for Old Men” – Joel Coen and Ethan Coen
• “There Will Be Blood” – Paul Thomas Anderson

Again HSX is all for the Coen brothers, but I think and hope that Paul Thomas Anderson will take home this one. And what the heck is Reitman even doing on this list? Sure Juno is a nice flick, but Oscar?

Performance by an actor in a leading role

• George Clooney in “Michael Clayton”
• Daniel Day-Lewis in “There Will Be Blood”
• Johnny Depp in “Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet Street”
• Tommy Lee Jones in “In the Valley of Elah”
• Viggo Mortensen in “Eastern Promises”

There is no competition for this one. Daniel Day-Lewis’ tour-de-force presentation is a sure winner, and HSX agree.

Performance by an actress in a leading role

• Cate Blanchett in “Elizabeth: The Golden Age”
• Julie Christie in “Away from Her”
• Marion Cotillard in “La Vie en Rose”
• Laura Linney in “The Savages”
• Ellen Page in “Juno”

This one is a little bit embarrassing as I’ve only seen Juno. But HSX is all for Julie Christie. If I had to predict what I think will win based on what I’ve heard I’ll say Julie Christie or Laura Linney.

Performance by an actor in a supporting role

• Casey Affleck in “The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford”
• Javier Bardem in “No Country for Old Men”
• Philip Seymour Hoffman in “Charlie Wilson’s War”
• Hal Holbrook in “Into the Wild”
• Tom Wilkinson in “Michael Clayton”

HSX and I both think that Javier Bardem will win, but I hope that Tom Wilkinson will take the statue for his role in Michael Clayton.

Performance by an actress in a supporting role

• Cate Blanchett in “I’m Not There”
• Ruby Dee in “American Gangster”
• Saoirse Ronan in “Atonement”
• Amy Ryan in “Gone Baby Gone”
• Tilda Swinton in “Michael Clayton”

HSX is a little split here between Cate Blanchett and Tilda Swinton with a slight incline towards Blanchett. I also think that she will win even though I hope that Swinton will.

Original screenplay

• “Juno” Written by Diablo Cody
• “Lars and the Real Girl” Written by Nancy Oliver
• “Michael Clayton” Written by Tony Gilroy
• “Ratatouille” Screenplay by Brad Bird; Story by Jan Pinkava, Jim Capobianco, Brad Bird
• “The Savages” Written by Tamara Jenkins

Here HSX is all for Juno, while I think it might come down between Juno, Clayton and Ratatouille. It’s a really hard one to nail. I hope that Michael Clayton will win for its very intelligent script.

Adapted screenplay

• “Atonement” Screenplay by Christopher Hampton
• “Away from Her” Written by Sarah Polley
• “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly” Screenplay by Ronald Harwood
• “No Country for Old Men” Written for the screen by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
• “There Will Be Blood” Written for the screen by Paul Thomas Anderson

Again HSX is all for No Country, while I think and hope that There Will Be Blood will take the statue.