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	<title>Blackwood.dk &#187; predictions</title>
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		<title>Predicting the Oscars</title>
		<link>http://blackwood.dk/w/2008/02/24/predicting-the-oscars/</link>
		<comments>http://blackwood.dk/w/2008/02/24/predicting-the-oscars/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 24 Feb 2008 10:35:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Simon</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Journal]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[academy awards]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Movies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[oscars]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[predictions]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[The Academy Awards is almost upon us, so lets try and see if we can guess any of the winners of the major categories. I&#8217;ll tell what I hope that will win and what I think will win (as they often are not the same) and also include what the traders at the Hollywood Stock [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2174/2281937207_aacb5e9bba_m.jpg" alt="Oscar" class="floatRight" /></p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.oscar.com/nominees/">Academy Awards</a> is almost upon us, so lets try and see if we can guess any of the winners of the major categories. I&#8217;ll tell what I hope that will win and what I think will win (as they often are not the same) and also include what the traders at the <a href="http://www.hsx.com/">Hollywood Stock Exchange</a> (HSX) <a href="http://movies.hsx.com/special/awardoptions2008/index.htm">are predicting</a>, as they always seem to hit it spot on.</p>
<p>
<p><strong>Best motion picture of the year</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>&#8220;Atonement&#8221; </li>
<li>&#8220;Juno&#8221; </li>
<li>&#8220;Michael Clayton&#8221; </li>
<li>&#8220;No Country for Old Men&#8221; </li>
<li>&#8220;There Will Be Blood&#8221;</li>
</ul>
<p>Here <a href="http://movies.hsx.com/special/awardoptions2008/index.htm">HSX</a> is hands down going with No Country for Old Men, I also think that it&#8217;s going to win, but I really hope that There Will Be Blood will take the honor.</p>
<p>
<p><strong>Achievement in directing</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>&#8220;The Diving Bell and the Butterfly&#8221; &#8211; Julian Schnabel</li>
<li>&#8220;Juno&#8221; &#8211; Jason Reitman</li>
<li>&#8220;Michael Clayton&#8221; &#8211; Tony Gilroy</li>
<li>&#8220;No Country for Old Men&#8221; &#8211; Joel Coen and Ethan Coen</li>
<li>&#8220;There Will Be Blood&#8221; &#8211; Paul Thomas Anderson</li>
</ul>
<p>Again <a href="http://movies.hsx.com/special/awardoptions2008/director.htm">HSX</a> is all for the Coen brothers, but I think and hope that Paul Thomas Anderson will take home this one. And what the heck is Reitman even doing on this list? Sure Juno is a nice flick, but Oscar?</p>
<p>
<p><strong>Performance by an actor in a leading role</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>George Clooney in &#8220;Michael Clayton&#8221; </li>
<li>Daniel Day-Lewis in &#8220;There Will Be Blood&#8221; </li>
<li>Johnny Depp in &#8220;Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet Street&#8221; </li>
<li>Tommy Lee Jones in &#8220;In the Valley of Elah&#8221; </li>
<li>Viggo Mortensen in &#8220;Eastern Promises&#8221;</li>
</ul>
<p>There is no competition for this one. Daniel Day-Lewis&#8217; tour-de-force presentation is a sure winner, and <a href="http://movies.hsx.com/special/awardoptions2008/actor.htm">HSX agree</a>.</p>
<p>
<p><strong>Performance by an actress in a leading role</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Cate Blanchett in &#8220;Elizabeth: The Golden Age&#8221;</li>
<li>Julie Christie in &#8220;Away from Her&#8221; </li>
<li>Marion Cotillard in &#8220;La Vie en Rose&#8221;</li>
<li>Laura Linney in &#8220;The Savages&#8221;</li>
<li>Ellen Page in &#8220;Juno&#8221;</li>
</ul>
<p>This one is a little bit embarrassing as I&#8217;ve only seen Juno. But <a href="http://movies.hsx.com/special/awardoptions2008/actress.htm">HSX is all</a> for Julie Christie. If I had to predict what I think will win based on what I&#8217;ve heard I&#8217;ll say Julie Christie or Laura Linney.</p>
<p>
<p><strong>Performance by an actor in a supporting role</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Casey Affleck in &#8220;The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford&#8221; </li>
<li>Javier Bardem in &#8220;No Country for Old Men&#8221;</li>
<li>Philip Seymour Hoffman in &#8220;Charlie Wilson&#8217;s War&#8221; </li>
<li>Hal Holbrook in &#8220;Into the Wild&#8221; </li>
<li>Tom Wilkinson in &#8220;Michael Clayton&#8221; </li>
</ul>
<p><a href="http://movies.hsx.com/special/awardoptions2008/sup_actor.htm">HSX</a> and I both think that Javier Bardem will win, but I hope that Tom Wilkinson will take the statue for his role in Michael Clayton.</p>
<p>
<p><strong>Performance by an actress in a supporting role</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Cate Blanchett in &#8220;I&#8217;m Not There&#8221; </li>
<li>Ruby Dee in &#8220;American Gangster&#8221; </li>
<li>Saoirse Ronan in &#8220;Atonement&#8221; </li>
<li>Amy Ryan in &#8220;Gone Baby Gone&#8221;</li>
<li>Tilda Swinton in &#8220;Michael Clayton&#8221;</li>
</ul>
<p><a href="http://movies.hsx.com/special/awardoptions2008/sup_actress.htm">HSX</a> is a little split here between Cate Blanchett and Tilda Swinton with a slight incline towards Blanchett. I also think that she will win even though I hope that Swinton will.</p>
<p>
<p><strong>Original screenplay</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>&#8220;Juno&#8221; Written by Diablo Cody</li>
<li>&#8220;Lars and the Real Girl&#8221; Written by Nancy Oliver</li>
<li>&#8220;Michael Clayton&#8221;  Written by Tony Gilroy</li>
<li>&#8220;Ratatouille&#8221; Screenplay by Brad Bird; Story by Jan Pinkava, Jim Capobianco, Brad Bird</li>
<li>&#8220;The Savages&#8221; Written by Tamara Jenkins</li>
</ul>
<p>Here <a href="http://movies.hsx.com/special/awardoptions2008/original.htm">HSX</a> is all for Juno, while I think it might come down between Juno, Clayton and Ratatouille. It&#8217;s a really hard one to nail. I hope that Michael Clayton will win for its very intelligent script.</p>
<p>
<p><strong>Adapted screenplay</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>&#8220;Atonement&#8221; Screenplay by Christopher Hampton</li>
<li>&#8220;Away from Her&#8221; Written by Sarah Polley</li>
<li>&#8220;The Diving Bell and the Butterfly&#8221; Screenplay by Ronald Harwood</li>
<li>&#8220;No Country for Old Men&#8221; Written for the screen by Joel Coen &#038; Ethan Coen</li>
<li>&#8220;There Will Be Blood&#8221; Written for the screen by Paul Thomas Anderson</li>
</ul>
<p>Again <a href="http://movies.hsx.com/special/awardoptions2008/adapted.htm">HSX</a> is all for No Country, while I think and hope that There Will Be Blood will take the statue.</p>
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